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Joey Votto had his best year since 2010 at the plate in 2015. It couldn’t have come at a better time. The Canadian Slugger will make $199 MIL min over the next 8 years and will be counted on to help with a rebuild. Either that, or maybe he could create enough value to be traded and the club could gain some financial flexibility going forward. The Reds finished 64 – 98 in 2015 – and are in the same Division as the top three teams in the MLB. They should continue to trade veterans for as many young players as they can – and rebuild for 2 – 3 years down the road.
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Homer Bailey was the 1st Pitcher to have a $100 Million Dollar Contract in place and undergo Tommy John Surgery. Carl Crawford holding onto a 7 YRs/$142 MIL deal originally signed with the Red Sox was the 1st guy to go down with the TJ Surgery as a position player.
Yes insurance will pay some of the money, but it is not a given that he will comeback and be as effective as he was before he went down with the UCL surgery.
The club is on the hook for Joey Votto to the tune of $199 MIL from 2016 – 2023 – and will jump another $13 MIL if the team picks up a $20 MIL Club Option for 2024.
The Reds are thanking their lucky stars that Votto posted his best baseball season since 2010 in 2015 with a 1.000 OPS and 143 Walks.
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Homer Bailey took a long time to fulfill expectations in the Reds Starting Lineup. At age 27, he threw now thrown 2 No hitters in under a calendar year. Even though he had never finished in the top 20 for NL Cy Young Voting, or made an ALL – Star Appearance, he was able to receive the 46th best ever contract in MLB history at the time. He is the 1st Starting Pitcher to have the Tommy John Surgery while possessing a deal worth more than $100 MIL for the duration of it. At Age 29 now, he will earn at least $86 MIL over the next four years.
Maybe a thought would attempt a trade with the Canadian Slugger right now – but it would have to involve a limited amount of clubs that could even afford the guy.
The club also a combined $52 MIL aggregate for the services of Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips. These two veterans could also hit the trade block shortly, with both of them set to be Free Agents after the 2017 year.
Todd Frazier also is under team control for the next to years, with a $8.25 MIL deal this year – before hitting the last of Arbitration next year. He is slated to be on the open market after the 2017 season as well.
Frazier racked up 79 Extra Base hits during the 2015 campaign – and will likely price himself out of Cincinnati for the future. He will be 32 in the first year of his new contract once he signs it. That is usually the start of declined production for guys at the hot corner. He should be dealt as well.
Aroldis Chapman is also on the last year of his Arbitration. There is no doubt the Reds Closer will earn between $11 – $13 MIL for what he has brought to the table. He fanned 116 guys in just 66.1 IP for the 2015 year. His value will be astronomical right now on the trade market.
Devin Mesoraco will make $25.5 MIL over the next three years – and it is vital that he shows signs of what he did during the 2014 season. Again, if he can play well in the 1st half, he should be made available by trade.
You could the Reds only having Homer Bailey and Joey Votto on guys that have contracts currently with the club past 2017.
If I were on the management of Cincinnati, I would take all of the veterans they have and rebuild. They made the playoffs 3 times between 2010 – 2013 – including back to back NL Central titles in 2010 and 2011. That core is past the point of being productive.
Cincinnati resides in the toughest Division in baseball right. The Cubs and Cards are forces. While St. Louis will have guys aging in the next few years like Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Adam Wainwright, the Cubs don’t.
Pittsburgh has about another 2 – 3 year window before they start losing players like Andrew McCutchen, and their core players become too expensive.
The Reds would stand to benefit by a rebuild right now, and then try to kick-start their contending for about 2018 or 2019 right now. Form a nucleus of guys near the same age.
Guaranteed Contracts/POS/AGE for 2016:
Joey Votto 1B (32): The Canadian Slugger makes $20 MIL in 2016, $22 MIL in 2017 – and for each year between 2018 – 2023 he will make $25 MIL per year. There is a $20 MIL Team Option for 2024 – or a $7 MIL Buyout.
Homer Bailey SP (30): Makes $81 MIL over the next 4 years that goes, $18 MIL in 2016, $19 MIL in 2017, $21 MIL in 2018 and $23 MIL in 2019. There is a Mutual Option for 2020 at $25 MIL, that also includes a $5 MIL Buyout.
Brandon Phillips 2B (35): The 3 Time ALL – Star makes $13 MIL in 2016 and $14 MIL in 2017.
Jay Bruce OF (29): Bruce will earn $12.5 MIL in 2016, and there is a $13 MIL Team Option for 2017 – with just $1 MIL for a Buyout. This should help in the trade winds.
Todd Frazier 3B (30): $8.3 MIL is the contract for 2016, he is a 3rd Year Arbitration case for 2017 – and is a Free Agent in 2018.
Devin Mesoraco C (28): The Catcher will earn $5 MIL in 2016, $7.3 MIL in 2017 and will jump to $13.1 MIL in 2018.
Raisel Iglesias SP (26): The Cuban Pitcher earns $3.2 MIL in 2016, $4.2 MIl in 2017, $5.2 MIL in 2018 before he will earn $5.7 MIL in 2019 and 2020 both.
Total Money for this Category – $80 MIL
Arbitration Eligible/POS/AGE
1st Year
Jason Bourgeois OF (34): I don’t expect the Reds to offer money to him at all. Non-tender candidate.
J.J. Hoover RP (28): Expect a $1.1 MIL contract.
Ryan Mattheus RP (32): Should make around $1.3 MIL
Total Money for this Category – $2.4 MIL: Total Team Payroll – $82.4 MIL
2nd Year
Zack Cozart SS (30): The SS will likely make $3 MIL this year.
Total Money for this Category – $3.0 MIL: Total Team Payroll – $85.4 MIL
3rd Year
Aroldis Chapman CL (28): Look for a deal worth $13 MIL.
Total Money for this Category – $13 MIL: Total Team Payroll – $98.4 MIL
Dead Money/Deferrals POS/AGE:
Burke Badenhop RP (33) – $1.5 MIL in 2016 and then he is done.
Skip Schumaker 2B/OF (36) – 500K
Bronson Arroyo SP (39): The former Red will make $1.4 MIL in deferred money per year for several more seasons.
Total Money for this Category – $3.4 MIL: Total Team Payroll – $101.8 MI
Entry Level Contracts POS/AGE
Billy Hamilton OF (26): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2017 – 2019 and is a Free Agent in 2020.
Tony Cingrani SP/P (27): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2017 – 2019 and is a Free Agent in 2020.
Ivan De Jesus 2B/OF/PH: Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and is a Free Agent in 2021.
Tucker Barnhart C (25): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and is a Free Agent in 2021.
Jumbo Diaz RP (32): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and is a Free Agent in 2021.
Anthony DeSclafani SP (26): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and is a Free Agent in 2021.
Eugenio Suarez SS (25): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and is a Free Agent in 2021.
Pedro Villarreal RP (28): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and is a Free Agent in 2021.
Carlos Contreras RP (25): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and is a Free Agent in 2021.
Michael Lorenzen SP (24): (Super 2) Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
Jon Moscot RP (24): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
Brandon Finnegan RP (23): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
Adam Duvall PH/1B/OF (27): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
Tyler Holt OF (26): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
Keyvius Sampson SP (25): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
John Lamb SP (25): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
Ryan LaMarre CF (27): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
Ramon Cabrera C/PH (26): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and is a Free Agent in 2022.
Total Money for this Category – $8.2 MIL: Total Team Payroll – $110 MIL.
Free Agents:
If the club is able to trade Chapman before the year they should probably allocate those dollars into signing 1 – 2 Starting Pitchers in going forward. The team could also use a Veteran OF to start the year as well.
The club will probably end up spending north of $100 MIL. If they can trade a lot of veterans this year, that is the more money they will be able to dole out on 2017 contracts.
Perhaps a Chris Young, Will Venable or Alejandro De Aza would be a great pickup for a 1 – 2 year deal. They would not have to break the bank on any of those guys.
For a Starter, maybe a veteran guy like Chris Young, Kyle Kendrick or Mike Pelfrey would be a stop gap measure for a year.
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Despite being one of the premiere Closers in the game right now, paying a guy $13 MIL for the next year to only pitch 50 – 60 Innings is not wise. The Reds could really acquire a huge haul of prospects for Chapman on the trade block right now. They should also investigate trading Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier as well. Those 3 guys are all Free Agents after the 2017 campaign, but would have some value to contending teams in the next few years.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.
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Tagged: adam wainwright, alejandro de aza, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony DeSclafani, Aroldis Champman, BIlly Hamilton, brandon finnegan, brandon phillips, brian price, Bronson Arroyo, burke badenhop, Carlos Contreras, chicago cubs, chris young, cincinnati reds, Cincinnati Reds Payroll in 2016, devin mesoraco, eugenio suarez, Ivan De Jesus, J.J. Hoover, Jason Bourgeois, jay bruce, joey votto, John Lamb, Jon Moscot, Jumbo Diaz, kyle kendrick, matt holliday, Michael Lorenzen, NL Central, pittsburgh pirates, Raisel Iglesias, Ramon Cabrera, Ryan LaMarre, ryan mattheus, Skip Schumaker, st louis cardinals, stephon johnson, todd frazier, tony cingrani, Tucker Barnhart, Tyler Holt, walt jocketty, will venable, yadier molina, zack cozart Image may be NSFW.
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