The Reds Might Be The Worst Team In The MLB At The End Of 2016

The Reds management started off the rebuild project nicely with the midsummer deals of Leake and Cueto last year. They also got a nice haul for 2 years left of Todd Frazier. However, due to a 10/5 rule for Brandon Phillips, and a domestic dispute killing the 1st Chapman deal (better deal than the Yanks forked out for his him), Cincinnati has been stymied in completing the quest. Our own Jordan Gluck ranked them as the 27th worst prospects team in 2015, and it has only slightly improved since then. It is going to be a long arduous process for the brass to pull themselves out of this predicament.

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The Reds are part of a 6 pack of National League clubs that are really bad, and should challenge each other for 100 losses and the worst record in the Majors for 2016.  What is worse is the financial flexibility is tied up in just a few players.

Management has done a decent job already trading Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman in the last year, while Brandon Phillips continues to hold his 10/5 rights to maintain his name on Cincinnati’s roster.

Homer Bailey and Joey Votto both make $20 MIL, and Phillips isn’t too far behind.

So while the team is bad, it is not saving any real money yet.

Simply put, the organization is looking to trade any veteran player that makes money.  Jay Bruce has already been traded once before a deal was nixed from a few Minor Leaguer’s failing physicals.

Jay Bruce could hit his way out of Cincy – with a good 1st half – as he will be traded in all likelihood before the end of July. A guy who can still crank 25+ HR should fetch at least a mid-level prospect. The cash off the books is even more important in the long scheme of things

There should still be lots of dialogue to trade the slugger.  The Orioles may still come calling.

Brandon Phillips may not be dealt until his deal runs out.  His family likes in the Cincy area, and he is exercising his rights to stick with the club.  Although I am not sure how much he will be able to stomach this season.

Last year’s club won only 64 games, but at least they played into July with Cueto, Todd Frazier and Leake still on the roster.  Frazier was awesome in the 1st half to say the least.  Joey Votto was prolific in the second half, and yet they still almost lost 100 games.

The real weakness will be felt at pitching with the Starting Staff.  Homer Bailey is listed as the #1 hurler, but he is coming off Tommy John Surgery.

Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, John Lamb, John Moscot and Brandon Finnegan are slated behind them.  Yikes!!

The Bullpen has several guys that are serviceable – with J.J. Hoover, Jumbo Diaz, Tony Cingrani and Michael Lorenzen, however if anyone of these guys can pitch half decently – they should be traded too.

The same could be said if Devin Mesoraco can recapture any of his 2014 talent.  With Catching at a rarity like we have never seen before, he could fetch a heavy ransom if he can show well the 1st half.

In 2014, Mesoraco was an ALL – Star and received NL MVP votes for his 25 HRs and 80 RBI – based on a 3 Slash of .273/.359/.534 in just 384 AB. This is world class caliber production. 2015 saw him injury plagued, and only managed 45 AB – while hitting zero jacks.  If he can produce just 70% of his 2014 numbers – then Cincinnati should have no problem trading him away this year.

Cincinnati would be perfectly situated to spend the next 5 – 6 years wallowing in the basement of the NL Central.  After 3 postseason appearances in 4 years from 2010 – 2013, the roster aged too quickly – while injuries burned other chances to win away.

Homer Bailey was given the extension instead of Cueto, and the team was already out of flexible cash to ever think about signing Todd Frazier or Aroldis Chapman.

Chicago and St. Louis have predominantly young squads, and the Pirates will still be a force to contend with until they start losing core players like Andrew McCutchen.

In a way, having an ALL – Star talent like Votto may keep given the fans a reason to show up at the ballpark.  Kind of like Ryan Braun in Milwaukee, and Freddie Freeman in Atlanta, all guys that have 9 figure salaried contracts on bottom clubs right now.

Colorado, San Diego and Philadelphia have young talent in their franchises at this minute, they are just not tied up with a lot of heavy contracts.

In a best case scenario, the Reds would have their veterans like Bruce, Mesoraco, Hoover, Diaz, Cingrani and Cosart all play well so they can be traded away for more Minor League talent. 

Keep stockpiling youngsters, cut some payroll and cultivate that young talent at lower levels.

They will challenge to be the worst team on the board in 2016 – and the fans should want that in order tor rebuild! 

What is worse is that they still will pay nearly $55 MIL for just 3 players in (Votto, Bailey and Phillips) the next few years. That kind of financial commitment kills any momentum when the club isn’t winning – since you can’t bank that cash for later either like the Astros and Cubs have recently done.  Forget about Free Agents, and almost calls for your to play with a skeleton crew of entry level contracts after that.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***

A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.

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